Identifying likely voters is a challenge for pollsters in every election. This year, the coronavirus, mail voting and a surge in political engagement may make it even harder than usual.
For now, Joe Biden’s nine-point lead across the critical battleground states is so significant that it is essentially invulnerable to assumptions about turnout, according to New York Times/Siena College surveys of the states likeliest to decide the election. But Mr. Biden’s supporters are far more likely to be concerned about in-person voting during the pandemic, and his wide polling lead among registered voters could narrow if their concerns persist to the election.
Over all, one-quarter of registered voters in the battleground states said they would feel uncomfortable voting in person. Perhaps surprisingly, these voters are fairly representative demographically of the country. The groups hit hardest by the coronavirus so far — older people, Blacks, Latinos, those in densely populated areas — are generally likelier to say they would feel uncomfortable voting, but not vastly so.